Distributed photovoltaic power generation currently faces both opportunities and challenges, with the determination of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals injecting vitality into the renewable energy market mainly reflected in the development of photovoltaic and wind power, which creates great market opportunities for the development of photovoltaic. The country's support and supportive policies for new energy have promoted the positive and healthy growth of the industry.

一 . 分布式光伏發(fā)展機(jī)遇

I Opportunities for distributed photovoltaic development

近年來(lái)，出臺(tái)了一系列政策，優(yōu)先支持分布式光伏發(fā)電發(fā)展，重點(diǎn)支持分布式光伏發(fā)電分散接入低壓配電網(wǎng)并就近消納，整縣推進(jìn)等大力推進(jìn)分布式光伏發(fā)電的政策，鼓勵(lì)結(jié)合荒山地和沿海灘涂綜合利用、采煤沉陷區(qū)等廢棄土地治理、設(shè)施農(nóng)業(yè)、漁業(yè)養(yǎng)殖等方式。因地制宜開(kāi)展各類(lèi)“光伏+”應(yīng)用工程。

In recent years, the country has issued a series of policies, giving priority to supporting the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, focusing on supporting distributed photovoltaic power generation to be connected to low-voltage distribution networks and consumed nearby, promoting the whole county and other policies to vigorously promote distributed photovoltaic power generation, and encouraging the combination of comprehensive utilization of barren hills and coastal mudflat, coal mining subsidence areas and other waste land treatment, facility agriculture, fishery and aquaculture. Carry out various "photovoltaic+" application projects according to local conditions.

其次是光伏技術(shù)的發(fā)展使光伏相關(guān)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格大幅度下降，建設(shè)成本的下降和清潔電力的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益刺激了投資的熱情。大部分地區(qū)的年投資回報(bào)率高于10%。

Secondly, the development of photovoltaic technology has led to a significant decrease in the prices of photovoltaic related products. The decrease in construction costs and the economic benefits of clean electricity have stimulated investment enthusiasm. The annual return on investment in most regions is above 10%.

第三是人們對(duì)光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)的廣泛認(rèn)知和接受，近年來(lái)光伏發(fā)電的廣泛應(yīng)用和光伏扶貧的開(kāi)展，光伏發(fā)電已經(jīng)廣為人知，技術(shù)成熟、商業(yè)化程度高，運(yùn)維簡(jiǎn)單，光伏發(fā)電已經(jīng)逐步成為投資的熱點(diǎn)。

The third is the widespread recognition and acceptance of photovoltaic power generation technology. In recent years, the widespread application of photovoltaic power generation and the development of photovoltaic poverty alleviation have made photovoltaic power generation widely known, with mature technology, high commercialization level, simple operation and maintenance. Photovoltaic power generation has gradually become a hot investment topic.

第四是分布式光伏建設(shè)規(guī)模相對(duì)較小，機(jī)動(dòng)性好，可充分利用閑置的廠房、商業(yè)建筑等屋頂資源，集約利用農(nóng)業(yè)設(shè)施等資源安裝光伏發(fā)電，就近消納，減少因遠(yuǎn)距離輸電造成的電能損耗，基本沒(méi)有棄光限電的問(wèn)題。

The fourth is that the scale of distributed photovoltaic construction is relatively small, with good mobility. It can fully utilize idle rooftop resources such as factory buildings and commercial buildings, and intensively utilize resources such as agricultural facilities to install photovoltaic power generation, which can be consumed nearby and reduce energy loss caused by long-distance transmission. There is basically no problem of abandoning light and limiting electricity.

二 . 分布式光伏的挑戰(zhàn)

II The Challenge of Distributed Photovoltaics

投資光伏發(fā)電也存在很多挑戰(zhàn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，是政策補(bǔ)貼逐年減少，對(duì)于輻射資源比較差的地區(qū)，投資建設(shè)光伏發(fā)電站存在經(jīng)濟(jì)效益低甚至無(wú)法收回投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)對(duì)政策依賴(lài)性較高，企業(yè)主要依靠補(bǔ)貼實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。

There are also many challenges and risks in investing in photovoltaic power generation. Firstly, policy subsidies are decreasing year by year. For areas with poor radiation resources, there is a risk of low economic benefits or even inability to recoup investment in the construction of photovoltaic power stations. The photovoltaic power generation industry is highly dependent on policies, and enterprises mainly rely on subsidies to achieve profits.

其次，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)及產(chǎn)品降價(jià)空間縮小，多晶硅、硅片、玻璃等材料甚至有漲價(jià)的勢(shì)頭，行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)壓力較大。

Secondly, the space for price reduction in the photovoltaic industry and products has narrowed, and materials such as polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, and glass are even showing a trend of price increase. The industry competition is fierce, and the pressure on enterprise management is high.

第三是東部發(fā)電地區(qū)的光伏建設(shè)可利用場(chǎng)地成為稀缺資源，場(chǎng)地或屋頂?shù)娜狈?dǎo)致場(chǎng)地或屋頂?shù)淖赓U價(jià)格上漲，進(jìn)而造成電站投資成本增加，進(jìn)一步加劇了光伏發(fā)電在的投資和回收的矛盾和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

The third is that the photovoltaic construction sites in the eastern power generation area have become scarce resources. The lack of sites or roofs has led to an increase in the rental prices of sites or roofs, which in turn has led to an increase in the investment cost of power stations, further exacerbating the contradiction and risk of investment and recovery in photovoltaic power generation.

光伏發(fā)電的另一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)是從業(yè)人員特別是技術(shù)人員的稀缺，隨著光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的大發(fā)展，需要大量具備光伏發(fā)電建設(shè)技能和較為豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人才。目前，該行業(yè)不僅缺乏大量設(shè)計(jì)、建設(shè)人才，同時(shí)也缺乏的運(yùn)維、管理人才， 要健全生產(chǎn)運(yùn)維和管理隊(duì)伍建設(shè)，積極開(kāi)展對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)戶(hù)用光伏、光伏扶貧等電站的運(yùn)維人員的技術(shù)培訓(xùn)，確保運(yùn)維人員持證上崗，保證已經(jīng)建成的光伏電站能夠正常運(yùn)行。

Another challenge of photovoltaic power generation is the scarcity of practitioners, especially professional and technical personnel. With the rapid development of the photovoltaic power generation industry, a large number of professional talents with photovoltaic power generation construction skills and relatively rich experience are needed. At present, the industry not only lacks a large number of design and construction talents, but also professional operation, maintenance, and management talents. It is necessary to improve the construction of production, operation, and management teams, actively carry out technical training for operation and maintenance personnel of household photovoltaic, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and other power stations, ensure that operation and maintenance personnel hold certificates to work, and ensure that the completed photovoltaic power stations can operate normally.

三 . 光伏電站建設(shè)和運(yùn)行中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

III Risks in the construction and operation of photovoltaic power plants

光伏發(fā)電站的建設(shè)和運(yùn)行過(guò)程中還存在有很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。光伏發(fā)電站在整個(gè)生命周期面對(duì)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有：

There are still many risks in the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations. The main risks faced by photovoltaic power plants throughout their entire lifecycle are:

01 場(chǎng)地風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

01 Site Risk

分布式光伏電站的建設(shè)場(chǎng)地比較復(fù)雜，通常有荒地、廢礦沉降區(qū)場(chǎng)地、建筑屋頂、水面等。廢礦區(qū)建設(shè)場(chǎng)地的下沉、建筑屋頂?shù)暮奢d等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都需要在投資建設(shè)時(shí)進(jìn)行了解和在項(xiàng)目前期有效規(guī)避。

The construction site of distributed photovoltaic power stations is relatively complex, usually including wasteland, abandoned mine settlement areas, building roofs, water surfaces, etc. The subsidence of the construction site in the waste mining area, the load on the building roof, and other risks need to be understood during investment and effectively avoided in the early stages of the project.

02 場(chǎng)地產(chǎn)權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

02 Property Rights Risks of the Site

分布式光伏有很多是采用場(chǎng)地租賃或通過(guò)合作等方式建設(shè)的，不能辦理產(chǎn)權(quán)證，在長(zhǎng)達(dá)20多年的運(yùn)營(yíng)周期內(nèi)，建設(shè)場(chǎng)地或建筑屋頂?shù)臍w屬權(quán)變化都會(huì)產(chǎn)生產(chǎn)權(quán)或使用權(quán)持久性等企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，易產(chǎn)生糾紛。特別是房主、廠房租賃戶(hù)一旦發(fā)生變化，其屋頂租賃、所發(fā)電力的消納等情況都有可能發(fā)生較大的變化，對(duì)于自發(fā)自用或自發(fā)自用、余電上網(wǎng)的電站產(chǎn)生消納和并網(wǎng)接入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。

Many distributed photovoltaics are built through site leasing or cooperation, and cannot obtain property rights certificates. During the operation period of over 20 years, changes in the ownership of the construction site or building roof will result in corporate credit risks such as the persistence of property rights or usage rights, which can easily lead to disputes. Especially if homeowners and factory tenants change, there may be significant changes in their roof leasing, electricity consumption, and other situations, which may pose risks to the consumption and grid connection of power stations that are self used or self used, or have surplus electricity connected to the grid.

03 電網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化帶來(lái)的并網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

03 Grid connection risks brought about by changes in grid structure

由于目前我國(guó)發(fā)電主體是以煤熱電為主，慣性大，與光伏、風(fēng)電調(diào)峰、調(diào)度的響應(yīng)速度慢。同時(shí)，隨著大量工商業(yè)屋頂電站，居民戶(hù)分布式光伏發(fā)電的建設(shè)并大量接入用戶(hù)側(cè)電網(wǎng)，會(huì)對(duì)用戶(hù)側(cè)電網(wǎng)產(chǎn)生電網(wǎng)電壓偏高、波動(dòng)增加、光伏逆變器應(yīng)過(guò)壓跳閘導(dǎo)致無(wú)法正常發(fā)電和用戶(hù)電器損壞等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，如何把握可再生能源并網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，將成為電網(wǎng)需要研究的重要課題。

Due to the current dominance of coal thermal power generation in China, which has a large inertia, the response speed to photovoltaic, wind power peak shaving, and scheduling is slow. At the same time, with the construction of a large number of industrial and commercial rooftop power plants, distributed photovoltaic power generation for residential households, and a large number of connections to the user side power grid, there will be risks such as high grid voltage, increased fluctuations, overvoltage tripping of photovoltaic inverters, and inability to generate electricity normally, as well as damage to user electrical appliances. Therefore, how to grasp the risks of renewable energy grid connection will become an important topic that the power grid needs to study.

04 電價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

04 Electricity Price Risk

隨著可再生能源發(fā)電的發(fā)展，電價(jià)波動(dòng)或降價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是存在的，盡管電價(jià)降價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比較小，但是這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)始終存在。

With the development of renewable energy generation, there is also a risk of price fluctuations or price reductions. Although the risk of price reductions is relatively small, this risk always exists.

05 電站設(shè)備質(zhì)量和壽命風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

05 Power Station Equipment Quality and Life Risk

盡管光伏發(fā)電站的主要設(shè)備性能和壽命都能滿(mǎn)足20年以上的使用壽命但是一些組件和逆變器等設(shè)備依舊存在短時(shí)期損壞的問(wèn)題，特別是一些個(gè)別廠家生產(chǎn)的設(shè)備有比較嚴(yán)重的質(zhì)量問(wèn)題，很難達(dá)到預(yù)期的使用壽命。

Although the main equipment performance and lifespan of photovoltaic power stations can meet a service life of more than 20 years, some components and inverters still suffer from short-term damage, especially some equipment produced by individual manufacturers with serious quality problems, making it difficult to achieve the expected service life.

06 自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

06 Natural Disaster Risk

光伏發(fā)電站投資較大，投資回報(bào)周期長(zhǎng)，受到自然災(zāi)害等不確定因素的干擾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大，光伏發(fā)電站的安全穩(wěn)定和高效運(yùn)行是確保投資回收的關(guān)鍵，光伏發(fā)電站安裝在曠野、屋頂?shù)葓?chǎng)所，使用環(huán)境相對(duì)惡劣，雷電、颶風(fēng)、洪水、冰雹、雪災(zāi)等等不可抗的自然災(zāi)害都會(huì)給光伏發(fā)電帶來(lái)組件破損、支架傾倒等巨大的損壞。

Photovoltaic power stations have a large investment and a long investment return cycle, and are at high risk of interference from uncertain factors such as natural disasters. The safe, stable, and efficient operation of photovoltaic power stations is crucial to ensuring investment recovery. Photovoltaic power stations are installed in open fields, rooftops, and other places, and the operating environment is relatively harsh. Irresistible natural disasters such as lightning, hurricanes, floods, hail, and snow can cause component damage to photovoltaic power generation Massive damage such as bracket tilting.

07 運(yùn)行事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

07 Risk of operational accidents

光伏發(fā)電站在運(yùn)營(yíng)中還有很多運(yùn)營(yíng)事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，盡管光伏發(fā)電站建成后，運(yùn)維費(fèi)用相對(duì)較少，但是它所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依舊存在。熱斑、接頭接觸不良，輕則導(dǎo)致電路、設(shè)備損壞，嚴(yán)重的會(huì)導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的火災(zāi)事故，造成重大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。

There are still many operational accident risks in the operation of photovoltaic power stations. Although the operation and maintenance costs are relatively low after the completion of photovoltaic power stations, the risks they face still exist. Hot spots and poor contact of joints can cause damage to circuits and equipment, and in severe cases, can lead to serious fire accidents and significant economic losses.